| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 3.60 | 3.64 | -0.04 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.01 | 4.06 | -0.05 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.40 | 4.43 | -0.03 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 3.93 | 4.02 | -0.09 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 3.84 | 3.90 | -0.06 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.16 | 4.20 | -0.04 |
* Implied yields from September 2024 futures. As at 13 August.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields fell moderately across the curve, largely in line with movements of US Treasury yields on Monday night. Domestic data releases included the August Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment survey, the July NAB Business Survey and June quarter Wage Price indices.
The next RBA Board meeting ends on 24 September. September futures implied an average cash rate of 4.32% for the month, thus pricing in a small chance of a 25bp cut at the meeting. July 2025 futures implied 3.63%, 71bps below the current cash rate, thus pricing in two 25bp cuts and a high probability of a third one between now and next July.
US MARKETS
US Treasury bond yields fell across a steepening curve. Data releases included July PPIs and July NFIB Small Business Optimism indices.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 18 September. September federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 5.155% for the month and thus a 100% probability of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. July 2025 contracts implied 3.375%, 195bps less than the current rate.
