| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 4.22 | 4.11 | 0.11 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.68 | 4.58 | 0.10 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.97 | 4.88 | 0.09 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 4.28 | 4.34 | -0.06 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.45 | 4.43 | 0.02 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.63 | 4.57 | 0.06 |
* Implied yields from December 2024 futures. As at 13 November.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields increased significantly across the curve, largely in line with movements of US Treasury yields on Tuesday night. Domestic economic data on the day was limited to September quarter Wage Price Indices.
The next RBA Board meeting ends on 10 December. December futures implied an average cash rate of 4.32% for the month, thus pricing in a low probability of a 25bp cut at the meeting. October 2025 futures implied 4.05%, 29bps below the current cash rate, thus inferring one 25bp cut and a modest probability of another one between now and next October.
US MARKETS
Short-term US Treasury bond yields fell while longer term yields increased. Economic data on the day were limited to October consumer price indices.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 18 December. December federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 4.49% for the month and thus a high probability of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. October 2025 contracts implied 3.85%, 73bps less than the current federal funds effective rate.
