| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 3.50 | 3.60 | -0.10 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 3.94 | 4.01 | -0.07 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.34 | 4.40 | -0.06 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 3.96 | 3.93 | 0.03 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 3.83 | 3.84 | -0.01 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.12 | 4.16 | -0.04 |
* Implied yields from September 2024 futures. As at 14 August.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields fell noticeably across the curve, especially at the short end, and somewhat in line with movements of US Treasury yields on Tuesday night. There were no domestic data releases of note.
The next RBA Board meeting ends on 24 September. September futures implied an average cash rate of 4.315% for the month, thus pricing in a small chance of a 25bp cut at the meeting. July 2025 futures implied 3.525%, 81bps below the current cash rate, thus pricing in three 25bp cuts and some chance of a fourth one between now and next July.
US MARKETS
Short-term US Treasury bond yields increased while longer-term yields fell. Data releases were limited to July CPI figures.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 18 September. September federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 5.185% for the month and thus a 100% probability of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. July 2025 contracts implied 3.41%, 192bps less than the current rate.
