| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 4.02 | 4.08 | -0.06 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.33 | 4.38 | -0.05 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.66 | 4.70 | -0.04 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 4.45 | 4.52 | -0.07 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.19 | 4.21 | -0.02 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.40 | 4.42 | -0.02 |
* Implied yields from September 2024 futures. As at 12 July.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields fell and the yield curve steepened, although the falls somewhat lagged the downward movements of US Treasury yields on Thursday night (AEST). There were no data releases of note.
The next RBA Board meeting ends 6 August. August futures imply an average cash rate of 4.38% for the month, thus pricing some chance of a 25bp rate rise at the meeting. June 2025 futures imply 4.215%, 13bps below the current cash rate, thus pricing in a material chance of a 25bp cut (in net terms) between now and next June.
US MARKETS
Short-term US Treasury bond yields fell noticeably while longer-term yields fell more modestly. Data releases included included June producer price indices and the University of Michigan July consumer sentiment report.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 31 July. August federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 5.315% for the month and thus a tiny chance of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. However, June 2025 contracts implied 4.07%, 126bps less than the current rate.
