| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 4.21 | 4.22 | -0.01 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.71 | 4.68 | 0.03 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 5.01 | 4.97 | 0.04 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 4.35 | 4.28 | 0.07 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.44 | 4.45 | -0.01 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.60 | 4.63 | -0.03 |
* Implied yields from December 2024 futures. As at 14 November.
LOCAL MARKETS
Short-term Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields slipped while longer-term yields increased moderately. Domestic economic data on the day included October Labour Force figures and the Melbourne Institute November inflation expectations survey.
The next RBA Board meeting ends on 10 December. December futures implied an average cash rate of 4.325% for the month, thus pricing in a low probability of a 25bp cut at the meeting. October 2025 futures implied 4.015%, 32bps below the current cash rate, thus inferring one 25bp cut and some chance of another one between now and next October.
US MARKETS
Short-term US Treasury bond yields fell while longer-term yields increased. Economic data on the day included October producer price indices and weekly initial jobless claim figures.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 18 December. December federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 4.515% for the month and thus a solid probability of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. October 2025 contracts implied 3.935%, 65bps less than the current federal funds effective rate.
