| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 3.76 | 3.77 | -0.01 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.26 | 4.28 | -0.02 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.66 | 4.69 | -0.03 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 3.95 | 3.95 | 0.00 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.04 | 4.10 | -0.06 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.32 | 4.41 | -0.09 |
* Implied yields from December 2024 futures. As at 15 October.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields fell modestly across a slightly flatter curve. There were no domestic economic data of note on the day.
The next RBA Board meeting ends on 5 November. November futures implied an average cash rate of 4.31% for the month, thus pricing in a modest chance of a 25bp cut at the meeting. September 2025 futures implied 3.715%, 62bps below the current cash rate, or two 25bp cuts and a good chance of third one between now and next September.
US MARKETS
US Treasury bond yields remained steady at the short end while longer-term yields fell noticeably. The only economic data of note released on the day was the Fed Empire State Manufacturing Survey.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 7 November. November federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 4.645% for the month and thus a high probability of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. September 2025 contracts implied 3.485%, 135bps less than the current federal funds effective rate.
