| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 3.72 | 3.76 | -0.04 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.21 | 4.26 | -0.05 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.60 | 4.66 | -0.06 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 3.94 | 3.95 | -0.01 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.02 | 4.04 | -0.02 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.30 | 4.32 | -0.02 |
* Implied yields from December 2024 futures. As at 16 October.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields fell moderately across a slightly flatter curve. There only domestic economic report of note on the day was the September reading of the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index.
The next RBA Board meeting ends on 5 November. November futures implied an average cash rate of 4.31% for the month, thus pricing in a modest chance of a 25bp cut at the meeting. September 2025 futures implied 3.67%, 67bps below the current cash rate, or two 25bp cuts and a good chance of third one between now and next September.
US MARKETS
US Treasury bond yields declined modestly across the curve. The only economic data of note released on the day were September Import Price indices.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 7 November. November federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 4.65% for the month and thus a high probability of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. September 2025 contracts implied 3.47%, 136bps less than the current federal funds effective rate.
