| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 3.40 | 3.44 | -0.04 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 3.82 | 3.83 | -0.01 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.23 | 4.23 | 0.00 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 3.55 | 3.58 | -0.03 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 3.62 | 3.65 | -0.03 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 3.93 | 3.98 | -0.05 |
* Implied yields from September 2024 futures. As at 16 September.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields generally fell, steepening the curve. There were no domestic data releases of note on the day.
The next RBA Board meeting ends on 24 September. September futures implied an average cash rate of 4.335% for the month, thus pricing in a near-zero probability of a 25bp cut at the meeting. August 2025 futures implied 3.27%, 107bps below the current cash rate, or at least four 25bp cuts between now and next August.
US MARKETS
US Treasury bond yields fell moderately on the day. Data releases were limited to the September Fed Empire State manufacturing index.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 18 September. September federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 5.17% for the month and thus a 100% probability of at least a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. August 2025 contracts implied 2.895%, 243bps less than the current rate.
