| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 3.33 | 3.31 | 0.02 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 3.85 | 3.83 | 0.02 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.23 | 4.23 | 0.00 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 3.61 | 3.55 | 0.06 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 3.65 | 3.62 | 0.03 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 3.96 | 3.93 | 0.03 |
* Implied yields from December 2024 futures. As at 17 September.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields generally moved a little higher. There were no domestic data releases of note on the day.
The next RBA Board meeting ends on 24 September. September futures implied an average cash rate of 4.335% for the month, thus pricing in a near-zero probability of a 25bp cut at the meeting. August 2025 futures implied 3.285%, 106bps below the current cash rate, or at least four 25bp cuts between now and next August.
US MARKETS
Short-term US Treasury bond yields rose noticeably while longer-term yields increased more moderately on the day. Data releases included reports for July business inventories, August retail sales, August industrial production and the NAHB September housing market index.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 18 September. September federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 5.17% for the month and thus a 100% probability of at least a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. August 2025 contracts implied 2.965%, 236bps less than the current rate.
