| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 3.70 | 3.72 | -0.02 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.09 | 4.12 | -0.03 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.49 | 4.51 | -0.02 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 4.15 | 4.26 | -0.11 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 3.98 | 4.03 | -0.05 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.28 | 4.31 | -0.03 |
* Implied yields from September 2024 futures. As at 1 August.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields declined across the curve. Data releases included July CoreLogic Home Value indices and June goods trade figures.
The next RBA Board meeting ends 6 August. August futures implied an average cash rate of 4.33% for the month, thus pricing in no real chance of any change at the meeting. July 2025 futures implied 3.80%, 54bps below the current cash rate, thus pricing in two 25bp cuts between now and next July.
US MARKETS
US Treasury bond yields fell across the curve, with falls heaviest at the short end. Data releases included the July ISM manufacturing PMI, June construction spending and weekly initial jobless claim numbers.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 18 September. September federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 5.18% for the month and thus a high probability of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. July 2025 contracts implied 3.655%, 167bps less than the current rate.
