| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 3.49 | 3.46 | 0.03 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.01 | 4.00 | 0.01 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.43 | 4.43 | 0.00 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 3.60 | 3.64 | -0.04 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 3.73 | 3.78 | -0.05 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.07 | 4.12 | -0.05 |
* Implied yields from December 2024 futures. As at 1 October.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields again moved modestly higher across a flatter curve. Domestic economic reports of note on the day included August retail sales and August dwelling approval figures.
The next RBA Board meeting ends on 5 November. November futures implied an average cash rate of 4.305% for the month, thus pricing in a low probability of a 25bp cut at the meeting. September 2025 futures implied 3.415%, 92bps below the current cash rate, or three 25bp cuts and a solid chance of fourth one between now and next September.
US MARKETS
US Treasury bond yields fell almost uniformly across the curve. Data releases included August construction spending, August JOLTS and the ISM September manufacturing PMI.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 7 November. November federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 4.55% for the month and thus a 100% probability of at least a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. September 2025 contracts implied 3.025%, 180bps less than the current federal funds effective rate.
