| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 3.54 | 3.54 | 0.00 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 3.98 | 3.96 | 0.02 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.36 | 4.34 | 0.02 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 3.92 | 3.89 | 0.03 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 3.91 | 3.86 | 0.05 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.20 | 4.15 | 0.05 |
* Implied yields from September 2024 futures. As at 30 August.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields rose modestly at the long end of the curve while shorter-term yields finished steady, somewhat similar to the movements of US Treasury yields on Thursday night. Domestic economic reports of note included July retail sales and July private credit figures.
The next RBA Board meeting ends on 24 September. September futures implied an average cash rate of 4.33% for the month, thus pricing in a slim chance of a 25bp cut at the meeting. August 2025 futures implied 3.485%, 85bps below the current cash rate, or three 25bp cuts and some chance of a fourth one between now and next August.
US MARKETS
US Treasury bond yields increased moderately across a steeper curve. Data releases were limited to July personal consumption and income figures.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 18 September. September federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 5.20% for the month and thus a 100% probability of at least a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. August 2025 contracts implied 3.335%, 200bps less than the current rate.
