| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 4.08 | 4.12 | -0.04 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.58 | 4.62 | -0.04 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.91 | 4.94 | -0.03 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 4.28 | 4.28 | 0.00 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.39 | 4.42 | -0.03 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.58 | 4.61 | -0.03 |
* Implied yields from December 2024 futures. As at 19 November.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields fell moderately and almost-uniformly along the curve. The only economic event of note on the day was the release of the RBA Board’s November meeting.
The next RBA Board meeting ends on 10 December. December futures implied an average cash rate of 4.325% for the month, thus pricing in a low probability of a 25bp cut at the meeting. October 2025 futures implied 3.885%, 45bps below the current cash rate, thus inferring one 25bp cut and a high probability of another one between now and next October.
US MARKETS
Short-term US Treasury bond yields finished steady on the day while longer-term yields fell moderately. Economic data on the day included October building permits and October housing starts.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 18 December. December federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 4.52% for the month and thus a solid probability of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. October 2025 contracts implied 3.885%, 70bps less than the current federal funds effective rate.
