| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 3.44 | 3.36 | 0.08 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 3.95 | 3.88 | 0.07 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.31 | 4.26 | 0.05 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 3.59 | 3.62 | -0.03 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 3.72 | 3.71 | 0.01 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.05 | 4.02 | 0.03 |
* Implied yields from December 2024 futures. As at 19 September.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields moved substantially higher across a slightly flatter curve. Domestic data releases included the September quarter ACCI-Westpac Business Survey and August Labour Force figures.
The next RBA Board meeting ends on 24 September. September futures implied an average cash rate of 4.335% for the month, thus pricing in a near-zero probability of a 25bp cut at the meeting. August 2025 futures implied 3.385%, 95bps below the current cash rate, or three 25bp cuts and a high probability of a fourth one between now and next August.
US MARKETS
Short-term US Treasury bond yields decreased moderately while longer-term yields increased. Data releases included reports for August existing home sales, a regional Fed activity index, weekly initial jobless claims and The Conference Board’s August Leading Index.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 7 November. November federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 4.555% for the month and thus a 100% probability of at least a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. August 2025 contracts implied 2.975%, 185bps less than the current rate.
