| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 4.08 | 4.08 | 0.00 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.57 | 4.58 | -0.01 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.90 | 4.91 | -0.01 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 4.32 | 4.28 | 0.04 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.41 | 4.39 | 0.02 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.60 | 4.58 | 0.02 |
* Implied yields from December 2024 futures. As at 20 November.
LOCAL MARKETS
Short-term Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields finished steady while longer-term yields declined a little. The only economic data of note released on the day was the October Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index.
The next RBA Board meeting ends on 10 December. December futures implied an average cash rate of 4.32% for the month, thus pricing in a low probability of a 25bp cut at the meeting. October 2025 futures implied 3.885%, 45bps below the current cash rate, thus inferring one 25bp cut and a high probability of another one between now and next October.
US MARKETS
US Treasury bond yields generally rose modestly across a slightly flatter curve. There were no notable economic reports released on the day.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 18 December. December federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 4.525% for the month and thus a roughly-even chance of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. October 2025 contracts implied 3.925%, 66bps less than the current federal funds effective rate.
