| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 3.82 | 3.78 | 0.04 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.32 | 4.26 | 0.06 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.70 | 4.65 | 0.05 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 3.95 | 3.98 | -0.03 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.08 | 4.10 | -0.02 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.40 | 4.36 | 0.04 |
* Implied yields from December 2024 futures. As at 18 October.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields rose moderately across a slightly steeper curve, somewhat in line with the movements of US Treasury yields on Thursday night. There were no domestic economic reports of note on the day.
The next RBA Board meeting ends on 5 November. November futures implied an average cash rate of 4.32% for the month, thus pricing in a modest chance of a 25bp cut at the meeting. September 2025 futures implied 3.775%, 57bps below the current cash rate, or two 25bp cuts and some chance of third one between now and next September.
US MARKETS
US Treasury bond yields generally fell modestly, ultra-long yields being the exception. Economic data of note included reports for September building permits and September housing starts.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 7 November. November federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 4.65% for the month and thus a high probability of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. September 2025 contracts implied 3.495%, 133bps less than the current federal funds effective rate.
