| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 3.49 | 3.51 | -0.02 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 3.89 | 3.90 | -0.01 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.28 | 4.28 | 0.00 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 4.01 | 3.94 | 0.07 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 3.85 | 3.80 | 0.05 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.13 | 4.08 | 0.05 |
* Implied yields from September 2024 futures. As at 22 August.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields again fell modestly across most of the curve, with ultra-long yields remaining steady. The August Judo Bank flash PMI release was the only domestic economic report of note on the day.
The next RBA Board meeting ends on 24 September. September futures implied an average cash rate of 4.325% for the month, thus pricing in a small chance of a 25bp cut at the meeting. July 2025 futures implied 3.515%, 82bps below the current cash rate, thus pricing in three 25bp cuts and some chance of a fourth one between now and next July.
US MARKETS
US Treasury bond yields increased moderately across the curve. Data releases included August S&P Global flash PMIs, a couple of regional Fed activity indices, July existing home sale numbers and weekly initial jobless claim figures.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 18 September. September federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 5.205% for the month and thus a 100% probability of at least a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. July 2025 contracts implied 3.485%, 185bps less than the current rate.
