| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 3.91 | 3.79 | 0.12 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.44 | 4.28 | 0.16 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.82 | 4.67 | 0.15 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 4.03 | 4.03 | 0.00 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.21 | 4.20 | 0.01 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.50 | 4.50 | 0.00 |
* Implied yields from December 2024 futures. As at 22 October.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields rose significantly across a steeper curve, outpacing the outsized upward movements of US Treasury yields on Monday night. There were no domestic economic reports of note on the day.
The next RBA Board meeting ends on 5 November. November futures implied an average cash rate of 4.325% for the month, thus pricing in a low probability of a 25bp cut at the meeting. September 2025 futures implied 3.855%, 49bps below the current cash rate, or effectively two 25bp cuts between now and next September.
US MARKETS
US Treasury bond yields barely moved. Economic reports of note were limited to the October Richmond Fed Survey.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 7 November. November federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 4.65% for the month and thus a high probability of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. September 2025 contracts implied 3.59%, 124bps less than the current federal funds effective rate.
