| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 3.83 | 3.87 | -0.04 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.28 | 4.33 | -0.05 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.57 | 4.61 | -0.04 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 4.93 | 4.97 | -0.04 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.60 | 4.61 | -0.01 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.73 | 4.71 | 0.02 |
* Implied yields from June 2024 futures. As at 23 April.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government Bond yields fell almost uniformly across the curve, outpacing modest declines of US Treasury yields on Monday night (AEST). The only notable data release was the Judo Bank Flash Australia PMI.
The next RBA Board meeting ends on 7 May. May futures imply an average cash rate of 4.305% for the month and thus a very small probability of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. However, May 2025 futures imply 3.985%, 33bps below the current cash rate, or one 25bp cut and some chance of another one between now and next May.
US MARKETS
US Treasury bond yields declined across the curve with the exception of ultra-long yields which increased modestly. Data releases included March new home sales and April S&P Global PMIs.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 1 May. May federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 5.32% for the month and thus an almost-zero probability of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. However, April 2025 contracts implied 4.71%, 62bps less than the current rate.
