| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 3.46 | 3.42 | 0.04 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 3.98 | 3.94 | 0.04 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.38 | 4.34 | 0.04 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 3.59 | 3.60 | -0.01 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 3.75 | 3.74 | 0.01 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.09 | 4.08 | 0.01 |
* Implied yields from December 2024 futures. As at 23 September.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields moved uniformly higher across the curve. There were no domestic data releases of note on the day.
The next RBA Board meeting ends on 24 September. September futures implied an average cash rate of 4.335% for the month, thus pricing in a near-zero probability of a 25bp cut at the meeting. August 2025 futures implied 3.415%, 92bps below the current cash rate, or three 25bp cuts and a solid chance of a fourth one between now and next August.
US MARKETS
Short-term US Treasury bond yields slipped a little while longer-term yields increased slightly. Data releases included September S&P Global PMIs and the August Chicago Fed Activity Index.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 7 November. November federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 4.535% for the month and thus a 100% probability of at least a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. August 2025 contracts implied 2.96%, 187bps less than the current rate.
