| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 4.08 | 4.11 | -0.03 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.56 | 4.59 | -0.03 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.85 | 4.91 | -0.06 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 4.38 | 4.35 | 0.03 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.41 | 4.42 | -0.01 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.59 | 4.61 | -0.02 |
* Implied yields from December 2024 futures. As at 22 November.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields fell across a somewhat flatter curve. S&P Global flash November PMIs were the only notable economic data released on the day.
The next RBA Board meeting ends on 10 December. December futures implied an average cash rate of 4.325% for the month, thus pricing in a low probability of a 25bp cut at the meeting. October 2025 futures implied 3.94%, 40bps below the current cash rate, thus inferring one 25bp cut and a good chance of another one between now and next October.
US MARKETS
Short-term US Treasury bond yields rose while longer-term yields slipped a little. Economic data for the day was limited to S&P Global flash November PMIs.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 18 December. December federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 4.525% for the month and thus a roughly-even chance of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. October 2025 contracts implied 3.99%, 59bps less than the current federal funds effective rate.
