| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 3.92 | 3.94 | -0.02 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.46 | 4.48 | -0.02 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.82 | 4.84 | -0.02 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 4.08 | 4.08 | 0.00 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.21 | 4.25 | -0.04 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.48 | 4.52 | -0.04 |
* Implied yields from December 2024 futures. As at 24 October.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields declined uniformly across the curve, in contrast with the moderate rises of US Treasury yields on Wednesday night. The only domestic economic data of note was the October S&P Global/Judo Bank flash PMI report.
The next RBA Board meeting ends on 5 November. November futures implied an average cash rate of 4.32% for the month, thus pricing in a low probability of a 25bp cut at the meeting. September 2025 futures implied 3.87%, 47bps below the current cash rate, or effectively two 25bp cuts between now and next September.
US MARKETS
Short-term US Treasury bond yields remained steady while longer-term yields fell moderately. Economic reports of note included S&P Global PMIs for October, September new home sales, a couple of regional Fed activity indices and weekly initial jobless claim figures.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 7 November. November federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 4.65% for the month and thus a high probability of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. September 2025 contracts implied 3.62%, 121bps less than the current federal funds effective rate.
