| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 3.35 | 3.46 | -0.11 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 3.91 | 3.98 | -0.07 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.33 | 4.38 | -0.05 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 3.54 | 3.59 | -0.05 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 3.73 | 3.75 | -0.02 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.09 | 4.09 | 0.00 |
* Implied yields from December 2024 futures. As at 24 September.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields moved noticeably lower across a steeper curve. The only domestic economic news of note on the day was the RBA’s decision to leave its cash rate target unchanged.
The next RBA Board meeting ends on 5 November. November futures implied an average cash rate of 4.29% for the month, thus pricing in a low probability of a 25bp cut at the meeting. August 2025 futures implied 3.28%, 106bps below the current cash rate, or four 25bp cuts and a modest chance of a fifth one between now and next August.
US MARKETS
US Treasury bond yields generally decreased across a steeper curve. Data releases included The Conference Board’s September Consumer Confidence Index and September’s Richmond Fed Activity Index.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 7 November. November federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 4.515% for the month and thus a 100% probability of at least a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. August 2025 contracts implied 2.905%, 193bps less than the current rate.
