| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 3.42 | 3.38 | 0.04 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 3.96 | 3.93 | 0.03 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.41 | 4.36 | 0.05 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 3.63 | 3.59 | 0.04 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 3.80 | 3.79 | 0.01 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.13 | 4.14 | -0.01 |
* Implied yields from December 2024 futures. As at 26 September.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields moved moderately higher across the curve. The only domestic economic data of note on the day was the August quarterly Job Vacancies Survey.
The next RBA Board meeting ends on 5 November. November futures implied an average cash rate of 4.295% for the month, thus pricing in a low probability of a 25bp cut at the meeting. August 2025 futures implied 3.35%, 99bps below the current cash rate, or practically four 25bp cuts between now and next August.
US MARKETS
US Treasury bond yields generally increased moderately across the curve, although ultra-long yields slipped a touch. Data releases included August durable goods orders, August pending home sales, weekly initial jobless claims and the Kansas City Fed September activity index.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 7 November. November federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 4.53% for the month and thus a 100% probability of at least a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. August 2025 contracts implied 3.05%, 178bps less than the current federal funds effective rate.
