| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 3.97 | 3.99 | -0.02 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.43 | 4.46 | -0.03 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.76 | 4.70 | 0.06 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 4.23 | 4.25 | -0.02 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.26 | 4.30 | -0.04 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.44 | 4.47 | -0.03 |
* Implied yields from December 2024 futures. As at 27 November.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields generally fell with the exception of 20-year yields which corrected for the previous day’s outsized move. Economic reports released on the day included September quarter construction work done figures and October CPI numbers.
The next RBA Board meeting ends on 10 December. December futures implied an average cash rate of 4.33% for the month, thus pricing in a low probability of a 25bp cut at the meeting. October 2025 futures implied 3.88%, 46bps below the current cash rate, thus inferring one 25bp cut and a high probability of a second one between now and next October.
US MARKETS
US Treasury bond yields fell moderately along the curve. Economic data for the day included reports for October durable goods orders, October wholesale inventories, weekly initial jobless claims and October personal income and outlays.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 18 December. December federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 4.51% for the month and thus a solid chance of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. October 2025 contracts implied 3.92%, 66bps less than the current federal funds effective rate.
