| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 4.06 | 4.06 | 0.00 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.46 | 4.46 | 0.00 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.70 | 4.70 | 0.00 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 4.99 | 4.93 | 0.06 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.70 | 4.64 | 0.06 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.81 | 4.77 | 0.04 |
* Implied yields from June 2024 futures. As at 26 April.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government Bond yields rose significantly across the curve, outpacing more moderate gains of US Treasury yields on Thursday night (AEST). Notable data releases included March quarter PPI and March quarter import/export price indices.
The next RBA Board meeting ends on 7 May. May futures imply an average cash rate of 4.325% for the month and thus a zero probability of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. May 2025 futures also imply 4.325%, 0.5bps above the current cash rate, or no chance of a 25bp cut between now and next May.
US MARKETS
Short-term US Treasury bond yields rose a touch while longer-term yields declined. Data releases included March PCE figures and the final reading of the UofM’s April consumer sentiment index.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 1 May. May federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 5.32% for the month and thus a near-zero probability of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. However, April 2025 contracts implied 4.765%, 56bps less than the current rate.
