| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 3.93 | 3.91 | 0.02 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.35 | 4.35 | 0.00 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.68 | 4.68 | 0.00 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 4.18 | 4.16 | 0.02 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.19 | 4.18 | 0.01 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.40 | 4.37 | 0.03 |
* Implied yields from December 2024 futures. As at 2 December.
LOCAL MARKETS
Short-term Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields rose modestly while longer-term yields finished unchanged. Economic data released on the day included the ANZ-Indeed November Job Ads survey, the Melbourne Institute’s November Inflation Gauge, CoreLogic’s November Home Value Index, October dwelling approval numbers, October retail sales, September quarter company profits and September quarter inventories.
The next RBA Board meeting ends on 10 December. December futures implied an average cash rate of 4.335% for the month, thus pricing in a low probability of a 25bp cut at the meeting. November 2025 futures implied 3.80%, 54bps below the current cash rate, thus inferring two 25bp cuts and a modest chance of a third one between now and next November.
US MARKETS
US Treasury bond yields rose modestly along the curve. Economic data for the day included October construction figures and the ISM November manufacturing PMI.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 18 December. December federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 4.50% for the month and thus a solid chance of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. November 2025 contracts implied 3.83%, 75bps less than the current federal funds effective rate.
