| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 4.11 | 4.10 | 0.01 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.42 | 4.39 | 0.03 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.74 | 4.70 | 0.04 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 4.74 | 4.76 | -0.02 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.44 | 4.46 | -0.02 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.61 | 4.63 | -0.02 |
* Implied yields from September 2024 futures. As at 2 July.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields moved higher across the curve, lagging the rises of long-term US yields on Monday night. Economic reports were limited to the release of the RBA June meeting minutes.
The next RBA Board meeting ends 6 August. August futures imply an average cash rate of 4.395% for the month, thus pricing some chance of a 25bp rate rise at the meeting. June 2025 futures imply 4.32%, just below the current cash rate, thus pricing in a zero probability of a 25bp cut between now and next June.
US MARKETS
US Treasury bond yields declined uniformly across the curve. The only economic data release of note was the May JOLTS report.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 31 July. August federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 5.31% for the month and thus a small chance of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. However, June 2025 contracts implied 4.405%, 93bps less than the current rate.
