| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 4.06 | 4.11 | -0.05 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.46 | 4.52 | -0.06 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.74 | 4.79 | -0.05 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 4.88 | 4.96 | -0.08 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.58 | 4.63 | -0.05 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.73 | 4.75 | -0.02 |
* Implied yields from June 2024 futures. As at 2 May.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government Bond yields fell nearly uniformly across the curve, somewhat in line with the falls of US Treasury yields on Wednesday night (AEST). Data releases included March dwelling approvals and March goods trade balance.
The next RBA Board meeting ends on 7 May. May futures imply an average cash rate of 4.325% for the month and thus a zero probability of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. May 2025 futures imply 4.23%, 9bps below the current cash rate, or a modest chance of a 25bp cut between now and next May.
US MARKETS
US Treasury bond yields fell across the curve, with declines again heaviest at the short end. Data releases included March factory orders, March trade balance and initial jobless claims.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 31 July. August federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 5.24% for the month and thus a modest probability of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. May 2025 contracts implied 4.645%, 69bps less than the current rate.
