| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 3.44 | 3.49 | -0.05 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 3.95 | 4.01 | -0.06 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.37 | 4.43 | -0.06 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 3.64 | 3.60 | 0.04 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 3.78 | 3.73 | 0.05 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.13 | 4.07 | 0.06 |
* Implied yields from December 2024 futures. As at 2 October.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields fell almost uniformly across the curve, largely in line with movements of US Treasury yields on Tuesday night. There were no domestic economic reports of note on the day.
The next RBA Board meeting ends on 5 November. November futures implied an average cash rate of 4.30% for the month, thus pricing in a low probability of a 25bp cut at the meeting. September 2025 futures implied 3.385%, 95bps below the current cash rate, or three 25bp cuts and a high probability of fourth one between now and next September.
US MARKETS
US Treasury bond yields rose moderately across a slightly steeper curve. The only data release of note on the day was the ADP September National Employment Report.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 7 November. November federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 4.56% for the month and thus a 100% probability of at least a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. September 2025 contracts implied 3.075%, 175bps less than the current federal funds effective rate.
