| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 3.93 | 3.96 | -0.03 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.46 | 4.49 | -0.03 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.81 | 4.84 | -0.03 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 4.10 | 4.13 | -0.03 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.26 | 4.28 | -0.02 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.50 | 4.53 | -0.03 |
* Implied yields from December 2024 futures. As at 29 October.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields fell uniformly across the curve, in contrast with the moderate rises of US Treasury yields on Monday night. There were no domestic economic reports of note on the day.
The next RBA Board meeting ends on 5 November. November futures implied an average cash rate of 4.32% for the month, thus pricing in a low probability of a 25bp cut at the meeting. September 2025 futures implied 3.86%, 48bps below the current cash rate, thus inferring one 25bp cut and a very high probability of another one between now and next September.
US MARKETS
US Treasury bond yields fell moderately across the curve. Economic data of note included September JOLTS figures, the Conference Board October consumer confidence survey and September wholesale inventory numbers.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 7 November. November federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 4.64% for the month and thus a very high probability of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. September 2025 contracts implied 3.645%, 118bps less than the current federal funds effective rate.
