| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 3.95 | 3.93 | 0.02 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.48 | 4.46 | 0.02 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.83 | 4.81 | 0.02 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 4.19 | 4.10 | 0.09 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.30 | 4.26 | 0.04 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.50 | 4.50 | 0.00 |
* Implied yields from December 2024 futures. As at 30 October.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields rose modestly across the curve, in contrast with the modest declines of US Treasury yields on Tuesday night. Domestic economic reports of note included September quarter CPI figures and monthly CPI numbers.
The next RBA Board meeting ends on 5 November. November futures implied an average cash rate of 4.33% for the month, thus pricing in a low probability of a 25bp cut at the meeting. September 2025 futures implied 3.885%, 46bps below the current cash rate, thus inferring one 25bp cut and a high probability of another one between now and next September.
US MARKETS
US Treasury bond yields rose by declining amounts out along the curve. Economic data of note was limited to September quarter GDP figures.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 7 November. November federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 4.65% for the month and thus a very high probability of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. September 2025 contracts implied 3.75%, 108bps less than the current federal funds effective rate.
