| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 3.91 | 3.93 | -0.02 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.32 | 4.35 | -0.03 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.64 | 4.68 | -0.04 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 4.18 | 4.18 | 0.00 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.23 | 4.19 | 0.04 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.41 | 4.40 | 0.01 |
* Implied yields from December 2024 futures. As at 3 December.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields fell moderately across a slightly flatter curve. Economic data released on the day was limited to September quarter balance of payments figures.
The next RBA Board meeting ends on 10 December. December futures implied an average cash rate of 4.33% for the month, thus pricing in a low probability of a 25bp cut at the meeting. November 2025 futures implied 3.775%, 56bps below the current cash rate, thus inferring two 25bp cuts and a modest chance of a third one between now and next November.
US MARKETS
Short-term US Treasury bond yields remained unchanged while longer-term yields increased. Economic data for the day was limited to October JOLTS numbers.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 18 December. December federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 4.50% for the month and thus a solid chance of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. November 2025 contracts implied 3.805%, 77bps less than the current federal funds effective rate.
