| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 3.49 | 3.44 | 0.05 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.01 | 3.95 | 0.06 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.43 | 4.37 | 0.06 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 3.71 | 3.64 | 0.07 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 3.85 | 3.78 | 0.07 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.18 | 4.13 | 0.05 |
* Implied yields from December 2024 futures. As at 3 October.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields rose almost uniformly across the curve, largely in line with movements of US Treasury yields on Wednesday night. The only domestic economic report of note on the day was the August trade balance figure.
The next RBA Board meeting ends on 5 November. November futures implied an average cash rate of 4.27% for the month, thus pricing in a some chance of a 25bp cut at the meeting. September 2025 futures implied 3.255%, 109bps below the current cash rate, or four 25bp cuts and a modest chance of fifth one between now and next September.
US MARKETS
US Treasury bond yields again rose moderately across a slightly flatter curve. Data releases of note on the day included August factory orders, the ISM’s September non-manufacturing PMI and weekly initial jobless claim figures.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 7 November. November federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 4.565% for the month and thus a 100% probability of at least a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. September 2025 contracts implied 3.165%, 166bps less than the current federal funds effective rate.
