| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 3.81 | 3.83 | -0.02 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.25 | 4.28 | -0.03 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.58 | 4.61 | -0.03 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 4.15 | 4.13 | 0.02 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.18 | 4.19 | -0.01 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.34 | 4.35 | -0.01 |
* Implied yields from December 2024 futures. As at 5 December.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields fell almost-uniformly across the curve. Economic data released on the day included the October goods trade balance and the October Household Spending Indicator.
The next RBA Board meeting ends on 10 December. December futures implied an average cash rate of 4.325% for the month, thus pricing in a low probability of a 25bp cut at the meeting. November 2025 futures implied 3.655%, 68bps below the current cash rate, thus inferring two 25bp cuts and a solid chance of a third one between now and next November.
US MARKETS
Short-term US Treasury bond yields rose modestly while longer-term yields declined a little. Economic data for the day included the October trade balance and weekly jobless claim figures.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 18 December. December federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 4.50% for the month and thus a good chance of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. November 2025 contracts implied 3.775%, 80bps less than the current federal funds effective rate.
