| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 4.08 | 4.04 | 0.04 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.58 | 4.57 | 0.01 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.90 | 4.90 | 0.00 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 4.20 | 4.18 | 0.02 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.29 | 4.31 | -0.02 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.45 | 4.50 | -0.05 |
* Implied yields from December 2024 futures. As at 5 November.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields rose by declining amounts along the curve. Domestic economic reports of note were limited to the latest RBA policy decision and its November Statement on Monetary Policy.
The next RBA Board meeting ends on 10 December. December futures implied an average cash rate of 4.315% for the month, thus pricing in a low probability of a 25bp cut at the meeting. October 2025 futures implied 3.925%, 41bps below the current cash rate, thus inferring one 25bp cut and a solid probability of second cut between now and next October.
US MARKETS
Short-term US Treasury bond yields rose modestly while longer-term yields fell moderately. Economic data of note included the September trade balance and the ISM’s October non-manufacturing PMI.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 7 November. November federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 4.64% for the month and thus a very high probability of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. October 2025 contracts implied 3.735%, 110bps less than the current federal funds effective rate.
