| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 3.53 | 3.56 | -0.03 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 3.94 | 3.96 | -0.02 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.35 | 4.38 | -0.03 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 3.74 | 3.76 | -0.02 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 3.73 | 3.76 | -0.03 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.02 | 4.06 | -0.04 |
* Implied yields from September 2024 futures. As at 5 September.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields again fell moderately across the curve, lagging the downward movements of US Treasury yields on Wednesday night. Domestic economic reports for the day were limited to July trade balance figures.
The next RBA Board meeting ends on 24 September. September futures implied an average cash rate of 4.33% for the month, thus pricing in a near-zero probability of a 25bp cut at the meeting. August 2025 futures implied 3.455%, 88bps below the current cash rate, or three 25bp cuts and a good chance of a fourth one between now and next August.
US MARKETS
US Treasury bond yields generally fell a few basis points across the curve. Data releases included the ISM August non–manufacturing PMI and weekly initial jobless claims.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 18 September. September federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 5.185% for the month and thus a 100% probability of at least a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. August 2025 contracts implied 3.13%, 220bps less than the current rate.
