| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 4.13 | 4.08 | 0.05 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.64 | 4.58 | 0.06 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.95 | 4.90 | 0.05 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 4.28 | 4.20 | 0.08 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.44 | 4.29 | 0.15 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.61 | 4.45 | 0.16 |
* Implied yields from December 2024 futures. As at 6 November.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields rose almost uniformly across the curve. There were no domestic economic reports of note on the day.
The next RBA Board meeting ends on 10 December. December futures implied an average cash rate of 4.32% for the month, thus pricing in a low probability of a 25bp cut at the meeting. October 2025 futures implied 3.95%, 39bps below the current cash rate, thus inferring one 25bp cut and a solid probability of second cut between now and next October.
US MARKETS
US Treasury bond yields rose significantly, especially at the long end of the curve. There were no economic reports of note on the day.
The next FOMC meeting ends tonight. November federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 4.64% for the month and thus a very high probability of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. October 2025 contracts implied 3.84%, 99bps less than the current federal funds effective rate.
