| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 4.13 | 4.13 | 0.00 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.65 | 4.64 | 0.01 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.96 | 4.95 | 0.01 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 4.21 | 4.28 | -0.07 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.33 | 4.44 | -0.11 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.54 | 4.61 | -0.07 |
* Implied yields from December 2024 futures. As at 7 November.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields generally rose modestly. Domestic economic reports on the day were limited to September goods trade balance figures.
The next RBA Board meeting ends on 10 December. December futures implied an average cash rate of 4.315% for the month, thus pricing in a low probability of a 25bp cut at the meeting. October 2025 futures implied 3.945%, 39bps below the current cash rate, thus inferring one 25bp cut and a solid probability of second cut between now and next October.
US MARKETS
US Treasury bond yields fell back, partially reversing the previous day’s large increases. The main news of the day was the 25bp cut by the FOMC while economic reports of note included September wholesale inventory figures and weekly initial jobless claim numbers.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 18 December. December federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 4.505% for the month and thus a solid chance of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. October 2025 contracts implied 3.77%, 81bps less than the current federal funds effective rate.
