| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 3.62 | 3.65 | -0.03 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.08 | 4.09 | -0.01 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.46 | 4.46 | 0.00 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 4.04 | 3.96 | 0.08 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 3.99 | 3.94 | 0.05 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.28 | 4.25 | 0.03 |
* Implied yields from September 2024 futures. As at 8 August.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields generally declined modestly, although ultra-long yields remained steady. There were no domestic data releases of note.
The next RBA Board meeting ends on 24 September. September futures implied an average cash rate of 4.315% for the month, thus pricing in a small chance of a 25bp cut at the meeting. July 2025 futures implied 3.655%, 68bps below the current cash rate, thus pricing in two 25bp cuts and a solid chance of a third one between now and next July.
US MARKETS
US Treasury bond yields increased noticeably at the short end while longer-term yields increased more moderately. Data releases were limited to weekly initial jobless claims.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 18 September. September federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 5.145% for the month and thus a 100% probability of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. July 2025 contracts implied 3.50%, 183bps less than the current rate.
