| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 3.69 | 3.76 | -0.07 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.17 | 4.22 | -0.05 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.56 | 4.49 | 0.07 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 3.96 | 3.99 | -0.03 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.01 | 4.03 | -0.02 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.30 | 4.30 | 0.00 |
* Implied yields from December 2024 futures. As at 8 October.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields generally fell, although ultra-long yields rose in what was probably a catch up from the previous day’s rises. Domestic economic reports of note on the day included ANZ-Indeed September Job Ads, NAB September Business Conditions indices, Westpac-MI Consumer Sentiment indices and the minutes of the September RBA meeting.
The next RBA Board meeting ends on 5 November. November futures implied an average cash rate of 4.315% for the month, thus pricing in a modest chance of a 25bp cut at the meeting. September 2025 futures implied 3.675%, 66bps below the current cash rate, or two 25bp cuts and a good chance of third one between now and next September.
US MARKETS
US Treasury bond yields generally declined modestly across a slightly steeper curve. Data releases of note on the day included September NFIB Small Business Optimism Index and August trade balance figures.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 7 November. November federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 4.655% for the month and thus a high probability of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. September 2025 contracts implied 3.505%, 132bps less than the current federal funds effective rate.
