| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australian 3-year bond (%) | 3.591 | 3.566 | 0.025 |
| Australian 10-year bond (%) | 4.371 | 4.35 | 0.021 |
| Australian 30-year bond (%) | 5.022 | 5.002 | 0.02 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 3.585 | 3.591 | -0.006 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.115 | 4.131 | -0.016 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.6938 | 4.7182 | -0.0244 |
Overview of the Australian Bond Market
Australian yields rose modestly on October 10, 2025, with the 10-year up one basis point to 4.36% as sticky 4.8% inflation expectations reinforced RBA caution amid US trade flare-up. The 2-year gained two to 3.52%, 5-year up two to 3.77%, 15-year rose one to 4.69%, steepening slightly.
Trump’s tariff hike threats, risking supply chains and growth, could hit Aussie commodities, echoing China’s rare-earth curbs as negotiation leverage pre-Xi meet. Local inflation tick dims cuts ahead of Thursday jobs, quarterly print key for November move.
AMP’s Oliver positive on shares longer-term via policy tailwinds despite risks. Georgetown’s Jacob Feldgoise notes chipmaker impacts from curbs.
CFTC positioning: trimmed longs suggest prudence on valuations. Dealers anticipate unchanged issuance, but Powell speech, Bullock talk may reprice.
Overview of the US Bond Market
Treasuries rallied sharply on October 10, 2025, with the 10-year yield diving 11 basis points to 4.03% as tariff escalation spurred haven demand, dollar easing after best weekly gain. The 2-year fell eight to 3.50%, 30-year down 10 to 4.62%. Shorter bills dipped slightly, 3-month at 3.85%, amid risk-off flows.
Trump’s 100% tariff threat from November 1, plus software export controls, risks earnings and growth, echoing April meltdown while amplifying shutdown data voids like delayed September payrolls (forecast 50,000 adds, 4.3% unemployment after August’s 22,000). August trade gap -$78.3 billion and factory miss heighten slowdown fears, potentially backing more Fed cuts.
Interactive Brokers’ Jose Torres sees levies weighing outlook, boosting havens. NatAlliance’s Andrew Brenner notes reversal bid for bonds. CSIS’s Gracelin Baskaran flags China’s strictest controls leveraging compliance.
Bank of America inflows suggest positioning not extended. CFTC data: asset managers trimmed longs $23.5 million per basis point in 5-year, bonds; leveraged pared shorts.
Dealers expect steady November-January auctions, though shutdowns disrupt, trade war spilling to issuance.
