| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australian 3-year bond (%) | 3.393 | 3.475 | -0.082 |
| Australian 10-year bond (%) | 4.17 | 4.229 | -0.059 |
| Australian 30-year bond (%) | 4.866 | 4.907 | -0.041 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 3.495 | 3.474 | 0.021 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.022 | 4.013 | 0.009 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 3.6129 | 4.6101 | -0.9972 |
Overview of the Australian Bond Market
Australian government bond yields tumbled on October 16, 2025, with the 10-year down seven basis points to 4.14%, two-year to 3.32% down ten, 15-year to 4.49% down six, as labor miss fueled easing wagers amid gold’s surge.
Unemployment spike to 4.5%—worse than RBA peaks—revives November cut to 70% odds, per Sycamore, despite Bullock’s spending pause. US-China curbs risk inflation, but Bessent’s de-risking coalition avoids chaos. AUD eased 0.31% to 0.6492.
Q3 inflation late October pivotal; Thursday’s tentative US retail sales, PPI on shutdown. Funds lean risk-averse via defensives, records signal resilience but volatility if trade escalates or AI disappoints.
Overview of the US Bond Market
Treasury yields declined on October 16, 2025, with the 10-year dipping five basis points below 4% to 3.97%, two-year hitting 2022 lows at 3.42% down eight, and 30-year to 4.59% down four, as bank woes spurred safe-haven flows while gold set $4310 record.
Bessent’s coalition-building at IMF with Europe, Australia, Canada, India, Asia for rare-earth response signals de-risking over decoupling, tempering trade war fears amid shutdown’s data void complicating Fed urgency. Waller’s measured easing, Miran’s tail risks from tensions back two more quarter-points this year. Philly Fed plunged to -12.8 vs 8.5 expected, highlighting cooling.
JPMorgan surveys indicate trimmed longs, asset managers paring $23.5 million per basis point in CFTC data, reflecting caution on credit cracks like Tricolor’s JPM hit. Dealers foresee steady August-October auctions per April guidance. Thursday’s retail sales (0.4% forecast), housing starts (1.32 million), import prices could affirm softening consumer, swaying cuts as eToro’s Bret Kenwell eyes earnings to steady volatility.
