| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australian 3-year bond (%) | 3.333 | 3.293 | 0.04 |
| Australian 10-year bond (%) | 4.279 | 4.189 | 0.09 |
| Australian 30-year bond (%) | 4.917 | 4.87 | 0.047 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 3.905 | 3.876 | 0.029 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.415 | 4.358 | 0.057 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.9584 | 4.8866 | 0.0718 |
Overview of the Australian Bond Market
Australian government bond yields rose sharply, with the 10-year yield climbing 13 basis points to 4.31%, and the 15-year up 13 basis points to 4.65%, reacting to the RBA’s unexpected rate hold at 3.85%. The 2-year yield surged 14 basis points to 3.39%, adjusting to short-term policy shifts.
Yesterday’s RBA decision, announced at 2:30 PM AEST, defied the 86% cut expectation, prompting the yield spike. The market reassesses the easing cycle, with four cuts (100 basis points) still priced by mid-2026, though the timeline may shift.
Global yields were muted, with focus on the OBBBA’s fiscal impact and today’s tariff deadline resolution. The Australian dollar held at 0.6586 US cents, as markets balance RBA caution with global stimulus optimism.
Overview of the US Bond Market
Treasury yields ticked higher as the OBBBA’s $3.3 trillion fiscal stimulus and tariff uncertainty influenced sentiment, with the 10-year note yielding 4.40%, up 0 basis points daily. The 30-year yield climbed to 4.92%, up 0 basis points, signaling long-term debt concerns.
The 2-year yield held at 3.89%, unchanged daily, while the 5-year rose to 3.97%, up 0 basis points. The yield curve steepened slightly, reflecting mixed views on rate cuts. Market expectations price two Fed cuts by year-end, with September favored, amid fiscal expansion and trade uncertainties.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s proposal to ease bank capital rules, boosting Treasury purchases, supported yields. Today’s tariff deadline extension to August 1 offers temporary relief, but bond markets await further trade and fiscal clarity.
