Summary:
Australia’s latest economic data signals a cooling economy, reinforcing expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut interest rates by 25bps to 3.60% at its August 12, 2025 meeting.
Unemployment rose to 4.3% in June, the highest since mid-2023, with youth unemployment at 10.2% and underemployment at 6.8%, pointing to broad labor market weakness. Inflation is easing, with headline CPI at 3.6% and trimmed mean at 2.7% and within the RBA’s 2–3% target. Retail sales growth slowed to 0.3% month-on-month, housing loan approvals have declined for three straight quarters, and business confidence, investment intentions, and building approvals (-5.2% YoY) are weakening. This would be the RBA’s third cut in 2025, following earlier moves, as it balances inflation control with preventing a sharp rise in unemployment.
Markets expect a cautious easing path, with possible further cuts in November and early 2026 if growth stays soft. A cut would likely benefit interest rate-sensitive sectors such as REITs, utilities, and consumer discretionary, while resource companies may face mixed outcomes amid commodity price volatility and trade tensions
Figure 1: Swaps on RBA Rate Cuts
| Product | Interest Rate p.a. | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| AMP Saver Account | 4.70% | Up to 4.70% pa variable rate on balances up to $500,000. Applies for customers that meet the eligibility criteria. |
| ANZ Premium | 0.05% | $10,000 - $249,999 |
| ANZ Progress Saver | 3.40% | Make at least one deposit of $10 or more in a month, make no withdrawals (including transfers), or incur any fees, charges in the month. |
| Arab Bank Online Savings | 4.55% | On balances of $250,000 to $499,999 |
| Bankwest Hero Saver | 4.10% | Variable Hero rate on eligible balances up to $250,000.99. |
| CBA NetBank Saver | 4.65% | 1.90% p.a.standard variable rate. 2.75% p.a.fixed bonus margin for the first 5 months on your first NetBank Saver. |
| CBA Goal Saver Account | 4.45% | 0.30% p.a.standard variable rate2. 4.15% p.a.bonus variable interest rate3. |
| Heritage Online Saver | 4.35% | get a 4 month Bonus Intro Rate* available for new members on balances up to $100,000. |
| ING Savings Accelerator | 4.20% | Open a Savings Accelerator from9 June 2025and roll higher with our4.95% p.a.variable kick starter offer. This includes a0.75% p.a. variable kick starter rate for the first 4 monthson balances up to $500,000. After that, roll on with our4.20% p.a.variable ongoing rate. |
| Macquarie CMA | 2.25% | Minimum $5,000 |
| ME Online Savings | 3.85% | Bonus interest applies to balances up to $500,000. Make at least four Visa Debit card purchases per month using your linked SpendME account. |
| NAB iSaver | 4.65% | We’ll add this bonus rate for the first four months if you have not held a NAB iSaver in the last 12 months (on balances up to $20 million). This is the total rate (standard variable rate plus fixed bonus margin rate) you could earn for the first four months, if you have not held a NAB iSaver in the last 12 months (on balances up to $20 million). |
| NAB Reward Saver | 4.35% | This is the total rate (variable base rate + variable bonus rate) you could earn on your NAB Reward Saver account if you meet the variable bonus rate conditions. |
| Rabobank PremiumSaver | 4.80% | On balances to $250,000. Balance increased by $200 a month. |
| RAMS Saver Account | 1.40% | On balances to $500,000. Minimum $200 deposit each month with no withdrawals. |
| Suncorp Growth Saver | 4.55% | Earn 4.55% p.a. Growth Saver bonus interest each month you grow your net balance by $200 or more (excluding interest) and make no more than one withdrawal. |
| ubank Save Account | 5.00% | All you need to do is have a Spend account and deposit $500+ per month into any Spend, Bills, or Save accounts (not including internal transfers) to get the bonus interest rate. Easy. |
| Up Savers Account | 3.85% | To qualify for the bonus interest rate in a calendar month, make 5 successful purchases using your Up, 2Up, Essentials or 2Up Essentials debit card, Apple Pay™, Google Pay™ or other digital wallets in the same month. ATM transactions or transfers are not included. To qualify for the bonus interest rate in June, make 5 successful purchases using your Up, 2Up, Essentials or 2Up Essentials debit card, Apple Pay™, Google Pay™ or other digital wallets before 7pm AEST/ADST on the last day of June. You can’t qualify for the bonus interest rate after 7pm AEST/ADST on the last day of June. |
| Westpac eSaver | 4.50% | Fixed rate for the first 5 months for new eSaver customers. |