Summary: Cash rate expectations for 2023 higher; cash rate now expected to average 3.745% in May 2024; 3-month BBSW up 4bps; three increases to surveyed ADI cash rates.
Expectations moved this week in a manner which suggested the path of the cash rate will be higher through 2023 and most of 2024 in comparison with its expected path at the end of the previous week. Contracts at the end of the week implied the cash rate would essentially stay at the current rate of 3.82% to average 3.85% in June, move up to an average of 3.915% in July and then average 3.995 in August. February 2024 contracts implied a cash rate of 3.89%, 7bps above the current cash rate while May 2024 contracts implied 3.745%, up from 3.355% a week ago.
Since March 2020, the RBA has not enforced its cash rate target by draining liquidity from the banking system. As a result, the actual cash rate has been noticeably below the target rate. As such, contract prices only reflect expectations of the average actual cash rate in a given month and not the implied likelihood of the RBA changing its target.
The Westpac-Melbourne Institute’s May reading of their consumer sentiment index was on Tuesday morning. The index fell significantly, dragged down by disappointment over the May federal Budget and another RBA increase.
The minutes of the RBA Board’s May meeting were released later that day. Economists were somewhat divided in their respective responses but none of them viewed the minutes as “dovish”.
The March quarter wage price index report was released the next day. Wages grew by less than expected over the quarter, although the annual growth rate increased to 3.7%.
April’s Labour Force report was released on Thursday. Total employment declined slightly, in contrast with expectations, and the jobless rate increased to 3.7%. The participation rate slipped back to 66.7%, still close to its all-time high.
3-month BBSW is a useful benchmark for cash rates and it finished the week 4bps higher at 3.93%. The RBA’s target for the overnight lending rate between banks is 3.85% but actual overnight interbank loans are being negotiated at 3.82%, 3bps below the target but 7bps above the RBA’s exchange settlement account (ESA) rate for ADI deposits with it.
There were three changes made by a deposit-taking institution in our survey of cash account interest rates this week. Rates on BoQ’s Bonus Interest Savings Account, Macquarie’s Cash Management Account and ME Bank’s Online Savings Account were all raised by 25bps each.
CASH ACCOUNTS
| Product | Interest Rate p.a. | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| AMP Saver Account | 4.80% | Min. monthly $1,000 dep. Limit $250,000. |
| ANZ Premium | 0.05% | $10,000 - $499,999 |
| ANZ Progress Saver | 4.00% | Make at least one deposit of $10 or more in a month, make no withdrawals (including transfers), or incur any fees, charges in the month. |
| Arab Bank Online Savings | 1.00% | On balances of $250,000 to $499,999 |
| Bankwest Smart eSaver | 2.00% | On balances up to $500,000.99 with no withdrawals in that month |
| BOQ Fast Track Saver | 2.50% | $1000 minimum monthly deposit. On balances up to $250,000, over part the Base Rate of 0.05% p.a. applies |
| BoQ Bonus Interest Savings | 2.50% | Bonus interest is paid into your account when you limit your withdrawals to a maximum of one per month |
| CBA NetBank Saver | 1.95% | 2.40% p.a. fixed bonus margin for the first 5 months on your first NetBank Saver |
| CBA Goal Saver Account | 4.40% | At least 1 deposit required; balance at end of month must exceed balance at start of month. |
| Great Southern Bank | 4.00% | No bonus conditions |
| Heritage Online Saver | 3.05% | $1 or more, bonus intro rate 1.45% (promotional 4 month rate on new accounts up to $100,000) |
| ING Savings Accelerator | 4.00% | $150,000 and over |
| Macquarie CMA | 2.50% | Minimum $5,000 |
| ME Online Savings | 4.00% | Have both Online Savings Account and Everyday Transaction Account. On balances up to $250,000. Make at least four "tap & go" purchases per month. |
| NAB iSaver | 1.85% | Bonus rate 2.65% for the first four months when you open your first NAB iSaver account |
| NAB Reward Saver | 4.50% | make at least one deposit on or before the second last banking day of the month and no withdrawals during the month |
| Rabobank PremiumSaver | 4.60% | On balances to $250,000. Balance increased by $200 a month. |
| RAMS Saver Account | 1.40% | On balances to $500,000. Minimum $200 deposit each month with no withdrawals. |
| Suncorp Growth Saver | 4.60% | Minimum $200 deposit each month and no more than 1 withdrawal |
| ubank Save Account | 4.60% | On a combined balance of up to $250,000. Minimum $200 deposit each month into Spend or Save accounts. |
| Up Savers Account | 3.85% | Make 5 successful purchases using your Up or 2Up debit card or digital wallets in a month. |
| Westpac eSaver | 1.10% | 4.25% p.a. for the first 5 months for new Westpac eSaver customers |
| Westpac Reward Saver | 4.50% | Make a deposit to the account and ensure account balance is higher at the end of the month than the beginning. Keep your account balance above $0 at all times. |