Summary: Cash rate expectations slightly higher; cash rate now expected to average 3.76% in August 2023; 3-month BBSW up 2bps; three increases to surveyed ADI cash rates.
Expectations moved this week in a manner which suggested the cash rate will be slightly higher through the remainder of 2022 and 2023 in comparison with its expected path at the end of the previous week. Contracts at the end of the week implied the cash rate would rise from the current rate of 2.81% to average 2.98% in December, increase to an average of 3.195% in February and then to an average of 3.58% in May. August 2023 contracts implied 3.76%, up from 3.735% a week ago.
Since March 2020, the RBA has not enforced its cash rate target by draining liquidity from the banking system. As a result, the actual cash rate has been noticeably below the target rate. As such, contract prices only reflect expectations of the average actual cash rate in a given month and not the implied likelihood of the RBA changing its target.
The minutes of the RBA Board’s November meeting were released on Tuesday. While economists generally found little in them to change expectations of more 25bps increases to come, one or two interpreted them as being slightly “dovish”.
The September quarter wage price index report was released midweek Wages grew by slightly more than expected in aggregate, reflecting increase to minimum and award wages according to one economist.
Westpac and the Melbourne Institute released the October reading of their leading index a day later. The annualised growth rate went further into negative (below trend) territory.
October’s Labour Force report was released on Thursday. Employment growth was greater than expected and the jobless rate declined to 3.4%. The participation rate remained unchanged at 66.5% after revisions.
3-month BBSW is a useful benchmark for cash rates and it finished the week 2bps higher at 3.05%. The RBA’s target for the overnight lending rate between banks is 2.85% but actual overnight interbank loans are still being negotiated at 2.81%, 4bps below the target but 6bps above the RBA’s exchange settlement account (ESA) rate for ADI deposits with it.
There were three increases made by deposit-taking institution in our survey of cash account interest rates this week. Great Southern Bank increased the rate on its eSaver Flexi account by 60bps while Bank of Queensland’s Fast Track Saver Account and Macquarie Bank’s Cash Management Account both had their respective rates raised by 25bps. The average rate across the 22 accounts increased from 2.16% to 2.20%.
CASH ACCOUNTS
| Product | Interest Rate p.a. | Special Conditions |
|---|---|---|
| AMP Saver Account | 3.60% | Minimum monthly $250 deposit. Limit $250,000. |
| ANZ Premium | 0.05% | $10,000 - $499,999 |
| ANZ Progress Saver | 2.25% | Minimum (single) $10 deposit each month with no withdrawals. |
| Arab Bank Online Savings | 1.00% | On balances of $250,000 to $499,999 |
| Bankwest Smart eSaver | 1.50% | On balances up to $500,000.99 with no withdrawals in that month |
| BOQ Fast Track Saver | 2.25% | Minimum monthly balance of $5000. 0.05% base rate. |
| BoQ Bonus Interest Savings | 1.60% | Maximum 1 withdrawal per month. 0.05% base rate. |
| CBA NetBank Saver | 1.35% | |
| CBA Goal Saver Account | 2.70% | Deposits must exceed withdrawals for bonus interest.0.15% base rate. |
| Great Southern Bank | 2.80% | No maximum balance |
| Heritage Online Saver | 2.30% | |
| ING Savings Accelerator | 2.95% | On balances over $150,000 |
| Macquarie CMA | 1.75% | |
| ME Online Savings | 3.00% | On balances up to $250,000. Make at least four "tap & go" purchases per month. |
| NAB iSaver | 1.10% | |
| NAB Reward Saver | 2.75% | At least 1 deposit and no withdrawals in month |
| RAMS Saver Account | 1.40% | On balances to $500,000. Minimum $200 deposit each month with no withdrawals |
| Suncorp Growth Saver | 3.15% | No more than 1 withdrawal and balance must increase by $200 in month. |
| ubank Save Account | 3.60% | On a combined balance of upto $250,000. Minimum $200 deposit each month into Spend or Save accounts. |
| Up Savers Account | 2.85% | Make 5 purchases using Up or 2Up debit card or digital wallets in a month. |
| Westpac eSaver | 0.85% | |
| Westpac Reward Saver | 3.50% | At least 1 deposit and deposits must exceed withdrawals for 2.15% bonus interest |