Summary: Cash rate expectations path noticeably steeper through 2022, early 2023; cash rate now expected to average 1.675% in March 2023; week’s data largely positive; no changes to ADI cash rates in survey.
Expectations moved to reflect a noticeably steeper path for the actual cash rate through 2022 and into early 2023 in comparison to its path at the end of the previous week. At the end of the week, contracts implied the cash rate would rise slowly from the current rate of 0.050% to 0.11% by April and then increase at a faster rate through to March 2023 where that month’s contract price implied an average rate of 1.675%. A week ago, the March 2023 contract’s price implied an average rate of 1.345%.
Since March 2020, the RBA has not enforced its cash rate target by draining liquidity from the banking system via changes in the total of ESA balances. As a result, the actual cash rate, currently at 0.05%, has been noticeably below the target rate, even after the RBA reduced this target to 0.10%. As such, contract prices only reflect expectations of the average actual cash rate in a given month and not some estimate of the likelihood of the RBA changing its target.
Economic data or events which had the potential to affect domestic interest rate expectations were largely received as positive.
ANZ’s January Job Ads survey was released at the start of the week. It reported a small decline but economists described the result as a sign of labour market “resilience” given a surge in Omicron cases.
NAB’s January business report was released the next day. Business conditions deteriorated for second month but confidence recovered a chunk of December’s loss.
Midweek, the Westpac-Melbourne Institute’s latest reading of their consumer sentiment index declined again, ending a run of slightly-above-average readings.
The Melbourne Institute’s February reading of inflation expectations was released on Thursday. Inflation expectations over the coming 12 months came in at 4.6%, up from 4.4% in January.
3 month BBSW is a useful benchmark for cash rates and it finished the week 1bp higher at 0.08%. Currently, the RBA’s target for the overnight lending rate between banks is 0.10% but actual overnight interbank loans are being negotiated at 0.05%, 5bps above the RBA’s exchange settlement account (ESA) rate for ADI deposits with it.
There were no changes made by deposit-taking institutions in our survey of cash account interest rates this week.
CASH ACCOUNTS
| Product | Interest Rate p.a. | Special Conditions |
|---|---|---|
| AMP Saver Account | 0.10% | |
| AMP Notice Account | 0.10% | Minimum 31 days notice |
| ANZ Premium | 0.15% | |
| ANZ Progress Saver | 0.20% | Minimum $10 deposit and no withdrawal per month |
| Arab Bank Online Savings | 0.50% | Minimum balance $500,000. |
| Bankwest Smart eSaver | 0.25% | On balances from $500,000 to $5,000,000. No withdrawal per month |
| BOQ Fast Track Saver | 0.05% | Minimum monthly balance of $5000. |
| BoQ Bonus Interest Savings | 0.30% | Maximum 1 withdrawal per month. |
| CBA NetBank Saver | 0.05% | |
| CBA Goal Saver Account | 0.25% | On balances of $250,000 - $999,999. Minimum $200 deposit and no withdrawal per month. |
| Great Southern Bank | 0.35% | No maximum balance |
| Heritage Online Saver | 0.25% | Minimum balance $250,000 |
| ING Savings Accelerator | 0.65% | Minimum balance $150,000 |
| Macquarie CMA | 0.00% | Minimum balance $5000 |
| ME Online Savings | 0.05% | |
| NAB iSaver | 0.05% | |
| NAB Reward Saver | 0.25% | 1 deposit and no withdrawal per month |
| RAMS Saver Account | 0.15% | On balances from $200 - $500,000. Minimum $200 deposit and no withdrawal per month |
| Suncorp Growth Saver | 0.05% | |
| UBank USaver | 0.50% | Limit $200,000. Minimum $200 deposit per month. |
| UBank USaver Ultra | 0.05% | Limit $200,000. Minimum $200 deposit per month. |
| Up Saver Account | 1.05% | Calculated daily, paid monthly once qualfied |
| Volt Bank | 0.90% | Limit $245,000 |
| Westpac eSaver | 0.05% | |
| Westpac Reward Saver | 0.15% | Minimum $50 deposit and no withdrawal per month |
| 86400 Save account | 1.20% | On balances upto $50,000 |