Summary: Cash rate expectations for 2023, first quarter of 2024 slightly lower; cash rate now expected to average 4.50% in May 2024; 3-month BBSW up 3bps; four changes to surveyed ADI cash rates.
Expectations moved this week in a manner which suggested the path of the cash rate will be slightly lower through 2023 and first quarter of 2024 in comparison with its expected path at the end of the previous week. Contracts at the end of the week implied the cash rate would rise from the current rate of 4.07% to average 4.17% in July, move up to an average of 4.32% in August and then average 4.405% in September. February 2024 contracts implied a cash rate of 4.56%, 49bps above the current cash rate, while May 2024 contracts implied 4.50%, down from 4.525% a week ago.
Since March 2020, the RBA has not enforced its cash rate target by draining liquidity from the banking system. As a result, the actual cash rate has been noticeably below the target rate. As such, contract prices only reflect expectations of the average actual cash rate in a given month and not the implied likelihood of the RBA changing its target.
The ABS’ May monthly CPI report was released midweek, producing a 5.6% annual rate, down from 6.8%. The trimmed mean measure slowed from 6.7% to 6.1%.
May’s preliminary retail sales report was released the next day it indicated retail spending increased by 0.7%, more than expected. Sales increased by 4.2% over the year, down from 4.3% in April.
May’s private credit report was published at the end of the week. Total loans outstanding increased by 0.4% over the month, in line with expectations. The annual growth rate slowed from April’s revised rate of 6.7% to 6.2%.
3-month BBSW is a useful benchmark for cash rates and it finished the week 3bps higher at 4.35%. The RBA’s target for the overnight lending rate between banks is 4.10% but actual overnight interbank loans are being negotiated at 4.07%, 3bps below the target but 7bps above the RBA’s exchange settlement account (ESA) rate for ADI deposits with it.
There were four changes made by deposit-taking institutions in our survey of cash account interest rates this week. Ubank and Up Bank raised their respective rates by 25bps while Heritage and Great Southern increased their respective rates by 15bps and 20bps.
CASH ACCOUNTS
| Product | Interest Rate p.a. | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| AMP Saver Account | 5.00% | Min. monthly $1,000 dep. Limit $250,000. |
| ANZ Premium | 0.05% | $10,000 - $499,999 |
| ANZ Progress Saver | 4.25% | Make at least one deposit of $10 or more in a month, make no withdrawals (including transfers), or incur any fees, charges in the month. |
| Arab Bank Online Savings | 1.00% | On balances of $250,000 to $499,999 |
| Bankwest Smart eSaver | 2.20% | On balances up to $500,000.99 with no withdrawals in that month |
| BOQ Fast Track Saver | 2.75% | $1000 minimum monthly deposit. On balances up to $250,000, over part the Base Rate of 0.05% p.a. applies |
| BoQ Bonus Interest Savings | 2.75% | Bonus interest is paid into your account when you limit your withdrawals to a maximum of one per month |
| CBA NetBank Saver | 2.20% | 2.40% p.a. fixed bonus margin for the first 5 months on your first NetBank Saver |
| CBA Goal Saver Account | 4.65% | At least 1 deposit required; balance at end of month must exceed balance at start of month. |
| Great Southern Bank | 4.20% | No bonus conditions |
| Heritage Online Saver | 3.40% | $1 or more, bonus intro rate 1.45% (promotional 4 month rate on new accounts up to $100,000) |
| ING Savings Accelerator | 4.35% | $150,000 and over |
| Macquarie CMA | 2.75% | Minimum $5,000 |
| ME Online Savings | 4.25% | Have both Online Savings Account and Everyday Transaction Account. On balances up to $250,000. Make at least four "tap & go" purchases per month. |
| NAB iSaver | 2.00% | Bonus rate 2.65% for the first four months when you open your first NAB iSaver account |
| NAB Reward Saver | 4.75% | make at least one deposit on or before the second last banking day of the month and no withdrawals during the month |
| Rabobank PremiumSaver | 4.85% | On balances to $250,000. Balance increased by $200 a month. |
| RAMS Saver Account | 1.40% | On balances to $500,000. Minimum $200 deposit each month with no withdrawals. |
| Suncorp Growth Saver | 4.85% | Minimum $200 deposit each month and no more than 1 withdrawal |
| ubank Save Account | 5.00% | On a combined balance of up to $250,000. Minimum $200 deposit each month into Spend or Save accounts. |
| Up Savers Account | 4.35% | Make 5 successful purchases using your Up or 2Up debit card or digital wallets in a month. |
| Westpac eSaver | 1.10% | 4.25% p.a. for the first 5 months for new Westpac eSaver customers |
| Westpac Reward Saver | 4.75% | Make a deposit to the account and ensure account balance is higher at the end of the month than the beginning. Keep your account balance above $0 at all times. |