| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 3.74 | 3.75 | -0.01 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.24 | 4.23 | 0.01 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.64 | 4.62 | 0.02 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 3.96 | 3.96 | 0.00 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.10 | 4.06 | 0.04 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.41 | 4.36 | 0.05 |
* Implied yields from December 2024 futures. As at 11 October.
LOCAL MARKETS
Short-term Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields slipped a touch while longer-term yields rose modestly. There were no domestic economic data of note on the day.
The next RBA Board meeting ends on 5 November. November futures implied an average cash rate of 4.315% for the month, thus pricing in a modest chance of a 25bp cut at the meeting. September 2025 futures implied 3.71%, 63bps below the current cash rate, or two 25bp cuts and a good chance of third one between now and next September.
US MARKETS
Short-term US Treasury bond yields hardly moved while longer-term yields rose moderately. Economic data included September PPI figures and the University of Michigan October consumer sentiment survey.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 7 November. November federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 4.655% for the month and thus a high probability of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. September 2025 contracts implied 3.475%, 136bps less than the current federal funds effective rate.
